Collierville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

117
FXUS64 KMEG 150443
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1143 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  end of next week. Severe weather chances will remain limited
  during the daytime hours each day with strong winds and
  localized heavy rainfall as the threats.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late next week, with heat
  indices of 100 to 105 expected by next Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GOES Water Vapor satellite trends place an upper-level low over
southern Indiana this afternoon. Regional WSR-88D radar trends
show isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
this low mainly over western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and
into portions of northern Alabama and north Mississippi.
Meanwhile, another MCS is located over eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies have prevailed
across the Mid-South today with 2 PM temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the remainder of the afternoon. Latest
mesoanalysis yields between 1000-2500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE
with very weak shear. (20 kts or less) As a result, pulse-type
showers and thunderstorms will be the dominant convective mode.
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low at best with
convective activity gradually weakening around or after sunset.

Short-term model trends indicate another weak open wave trough
will form across portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valleys over the next 24-36 hours and remain across the region
through Tuesday. This will result in continued convective chances
across the Mid-South during this period, especially each
afternoon/early evening. This pulse-type environment will
continue through early next week with gusty winds the primary
threat for any strong thunderstorms. A localized heavy rainfall
threat will also exist as precipitable water values approach the
99th percentile around 2 inches.

Long-term deterministic and ensemble model solutions indicate an
upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains will gradually build
east into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley by late next
week with temperatures rising into the lower to middle 90s across
some locations. These warmer temperatures combined with high
dewpoints may result in heat index values approaching heat
advisory criteria around 105 degrees over northwest Mississippi.
Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection is anticipated
as the Mid-South will remain on the northeastern periphery of the
upper-level ridge axis.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas of fog have developed near KMKL so have included reduced
visibilities with possible LIFR ceilings. 00Z CAMs show much less
coverage of thunderstorms especially over northern sections of the
Mid-South. Included a PROB30 group for thunderstorms for KMEM and
KTUP in the late afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected for
much of the forecast period. Light winds overnight becoming
southwest around 5 knots on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Light winds and high humidity will persist into next week. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will persist each afternoon and evening.
Hot and humid conditions will return late next week with
temperatures rising into the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ARS